Little Ice Age II, The Sequel?

The lingering cool temperatures being experience by much of North America has weather forecasters wondering if we are entering a new Little Ice Age—a reference to the prolonged period of cold weather that afflicted the world for centuries and didn't end until just prior to the American Civil War. From historical records, scientists have found a strong correlation between low sunspot activity and a cooling climate. At the end of May, an international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA released a new prediction for the next solar cycle: Solar Cycle 24 will be one of the weakest in recent memory. Are we about to start a new Little Ice Age?

According to the report, Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a sunspot count well below average. “If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78,” says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. This does not mean that we won't feel the results of renewed solar storm activity here on Earth.

“Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather,” points out Biesecker. “The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013.” A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a storm similar to the 1859 disturbance—known as the “Carrington Event” after astronomer Richard Carrington who observed the associated solar flare—occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. Reportedly, the 1859 storm electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their glow.

As we reported in Chapter 10 of The Resilient Earth, the most interesting feature of sunspots is that their number increases and decreases in a regular rhythm over about a decade. This regular cycle was first noticed by the German astronomer Samuel Heinrich Schwabe in 1843. This has become known as the solar magnetic activity cycle, or sunspot cycle. The number of sunspots in each cycle is not constant; there have been periods where many sunspots were observed, and others when sunspots seem to disappear altogether. Sightings from China, Korea and Japan between 28 BC and 1743 AD averaged only six sunspots per year. None were observed between 1639 and 1700, a period know as the Maunder Minimum.

The period from roughly 1300 to 1850 is known as the “Little Ice Age,” a period characterized by unusually long and cold winters. Some confine the Little Ice Age to approximately the 16th century to the mid 19th century, but it is generally agreed that there were three temperature minima, occurring around 1650, 1770, and 1850. Each minima separated by slight warming intervals. These periods coincides closely with times of solar inactivity, with some of the worst weather occurring squarely during the Maunder Minimum.

The Maunder Minimum is named after the English astronomer Edward W. Maunder (1851-1928). From studying historical records of sunspot counts, called the sunspot number, Maunder discovered that sunspots were virtually absent during this period, and disappeared altogether during the decade starting in 1670. Astronomers observed only about 50 sunspots during the 70 year period from 1645 to 1715. Normal sunspot activity would have produced 40,000 to 50,000 sunspots.

Already in the midst of the Little Ice Age's colder than average climate, Europe and North America went into a deep freeze: alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland, sea ice crept south from the Arctic, and the famous canals in the Netherlands froze regularly—an event that is rare today. In London, ice festivals were held on the frozen Themes and in New York City people could walk to Manhattan and Staten Island on the ice. On the down side, crops failed and many died of the cold.

In 1991, a pair of Danish meteorologists published a paper in which they pointed out a remarkably strong correlation between the length of the solar activity cycle and the global mean temperature in the northern hemisphere. Not all activity cycles are the same length, with longer cycles of 12-14 years duration seeming to indicate cooler global temperatures than shorter 9-10 year cycles. It is difficult to assess the effect of recent solar cycles on global climate, let alone those from the Maunder minimum, because of the relatively short time span for which detailed observations exist. Climate data for the past 100 years are spotty enough, climate records become sparse to nonexistent when looking back more than a century.

The correlation between temperature and sunspot activity has been commented on before on this site (see “Scientists Discover The Sun Does Affect Earth's Climate”), so I will not go into great detail about it here. However, it is interesting to note that a comparison of sea surface temperature and the number of observed sunspots over the past 150 years or so yeilds an astoundingly close match—much closer than the correlation between CO2 and temperature.

Scientists are not sure how solar activity and space weather are linked to climate here on Earth. They do know that the last time sunspots all but disappeared for an extended period of time our planet experienced a dramatic downswing in temperature. Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley—the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set modern records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance.

There are variations in the 11 year cycle and other cycles of longer duration also seem to be at work here. Naturally, scientists have tried to predict the changing activity of the sun by examining the historical records and, more recently, using computer models. This is not to say that the predictions are always correct, no one correctly predicted the current ebb in solar activity. “In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it,” said Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Cente. “Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted in 2007.”

“It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," admited Pesnell, NASA's lead representative on the prediction panel. “The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way.” Though the face of the sun is not as blemish free as it was a few months ago, the latest images from SOHO show sunspot activity is picking up a bit. But the current level of activity is still quite low. In fact, the sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare. What does this portend for the weather here on planet Earth?

According to expert long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi, areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.” This is a reference to the year 1816, also known as the Poverty Year, during which severe and abnormally cold summer weather destroyed crops in Northern Europe, the American Northeast and eastern Canada. According to Bastardi the jet stream is displaced abnormally southward this spring, which is suppressing the number of thunderstorms that can form. The ones that do form in areas of the Ohio Valley and West are forming in places with very cold temperatures, which can lead to thunderstorms more electrically active than normal.

Despite claims by global warming activists that rising temperatures are extending growing seasons around the world, the opposite seems to be happening this year. Cool weather has pushed growth of Western Canada's wheat and barley crop at least 10 days behind schedule, according to the Canadian Wheat Board. “You're pushing development into a period with better likelihood of getting a frost,” said Bruce Burnett, director of weather and market analysis for the Canadian Wheat Board. “It's not particularly what we need at this moment. It's just too cool.”

Proving that this isn't only a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon, Brazil may cut this year’s corn output forecast for a third consecutive time, as a frost in several states caused more crop damage. According to Silvio Porto, agriculture policy director, corn growers may harvest less than the 49.9 million metric tons forecast previously announced as frost struck Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul states in the past two weeks. “It’s a worrying situation as corn has already suffered with a severe drought,” Porto said. “Still, it’s too early to know the size of the damage.”

New record cold temperatures have been seen in a number of locations around the world, marking this as one of the coldest springs in years. With reports of late season frost and snow falls, some are already forecasting a very cool summer. Not trying to sound alarmist or start any rumors but scientists' best conjecture regarding the conditions that signal the start of a new glacial period are cool, cloudy summers. Is this the beginning of Little Ice Age II, the sequel? If so, we will look back fondly on the time we were all so concerned about global warming. Remember, in the words of SF author Orson Scott Card, “'global warming' is just another term for 'good weather.'”

Be safe, enjoy the interglacial and stay skeptical.

New Proof Quiet Sun Caused Little Ice Age

An American solar physicist says he has new evidence to suggest that the sun was indeed the culprit. According to Peter Foukal, an independent solar physicist with Heliophysics Inc. in Nahant, Massachusetts, the total energy output of the sun is lower during a solar minimum. If the minimum is prolonged, as it was in the second half of the 17th century, the dip in output might indeed affect Earth’s climate.

See the Science Now article for more.

sounds good

This sounds good. I have always liked hedging against winter wheat futures on eastern Colorado and western Kansas winter crop yield on the KC Board of Trade.

Thx

Thank you for this report its both: scary and interesting. Hope we don't get an iceage ._.

Your Radio Friedrichsfelde

Despite

Despite claims by global warming activists that rising temperatures are extending growing seasons around the world, the opposite seems to be happening this year.

New record

New record cold temperatures have been seen in a number of locations around the world, marking this as one of the coldest springs in years.

Not trying

Not trying to sound alarmist or start any rumors but scientists' best conjecture regarding the conditions that signal the start of a new glacial period are cool, cloudy summers.

We expect very hard times.

We expect very hard times. Ice age would start tomorrow if I do not think the human species as we know it will survive. I do not think we are ready and we do not have what to do. Technology have to evolve if we are to survive.
Mihai Bogdan

Stay sceptical

The NOAA has stated that "For the 2010 year-to-date (January–November), the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average—the warmest such period since records began in 1880." 2010 may become the warmest year in recorded history, and most of the top 10 hottest years on record have occured in the last decade.

I prefer to believe the hard data indicating global warming, rather than speculation related to the next sun activity cycle. IF the solar cooling trend DOES occur, it will help to reduce the impact of ongoing global warming.

Warmer than what?

Here is a new graph from Dr. Don J. Easterbrook regarding the attention 2010 is getting as a contender for the warmest year of the century. Of the past 10,500 years, 9,100 were warmer than 1934/1998/2010) Thus, regardless of which year ( 1934, 1998, or 2010) turns out to be the warmest of the past century, that year will rank number 9,099 in the long-term list.


Temperatures over the past 10,000 years recorded in the GISP2 Greenland ice core.

That kind of puts the wailing over the “hottest year since” dreck into perspective. For more detailed information see “2010 – where does it fit in the warmest year list?” on the Watts Up With That? website. As for the NOAA data, I'll take readings that aren't “adjusted” to fit the reporters preconceived notions of what they should be.

1909 - Raritan Bay Frozen

There is an interesting photo, at the Raritan Yacht Club in Perth Amboy New Jersey, from 1909 when Raritan Bay froze solid. In the photo you can see the frozen bay and skaters skating around the Great Beds Lighthouse. For those unfamiliar with NJ/NY area, this bay opens into New York Harbor through the Verrazano narrows. It has never been known to freeze as it is open to the sea. However the timing of the freeze correlates well with the graph.

Does anyone know where I

Does anyone know where I could find some weather records for that period (1856's) in the area of Nova Scotia / Northeast Coast US?

where to find

perhaps your local library or the internet?

NW USA had coldest/wetest spring on record in 2010.

Where I live, Oregon and Washington went into the coldest spring/start of summer on record with the latest 90 degree temperature reading of all time in Portland, Oregon. We also recorded the wettest April-Jun period on record. After a record warm 2009 summer, it looks like we might be in for a below average rest of the summer, and a very cold and unusually snowy winter perdicted here.

interesting

Great article, I was reading something similar on another website that i was researching. But I think we can't talk about a new little ice age...

Very Interesting

I love reading about the history of the earth and watching shows like "how the earth was made". I love this kind of stuff. I appreciate all of the great information you have given us. I work for a personal loans company and I dont have time to do all of this awesome research like you. I really am interested in the Mini Ice age.

Things Are Really Changing

I'm not really sure what will happen in terms of an ice age. All I know is that the weather is going quite nuts. This year we didn't actually have a spring. It was basically winter right up until June. We would have a day here and there that seemed like spring and then winter would kick back in. It's just horrible.
Christine

I was wondering why the

I was wondering why the people in the 17th century were having so many problems settleing in America and growing their own food, does the problem also have to do with the fact that the sun had less sun spots at this time, and did this have any effect on the early American Colonies?
Also how were the Indians effected?

Colonies

They were freezing their butts off. Didn't you read the article?

Cold summer, indeed...

Well, here it is now the beginning of November, and it has finally stopped raining, some 6 weeks late. Here in NC, temps in the summer months are regularly over 90 degrees. This year, we saw 90 only about 3 time, where I am. I am 65, and I cannot remember a summer this cold and wet. I was reminded of descriptions of the early 1800s Year Without a Summer. I think I will invest some money in stock in sled manufacturers...

Next ice age?

Till now it is a verbal fight between people who believe that we have a global warming and those who believe that all is normal. There are so many factors which influence our climate and one main factor of them is the sun. I have read many times about the cycles of the sun but I have to confess never so detailed as here - thank you for posting, Gipsy

Thanks for the information. I

Thanks for the information. I believe this article is useful too for all readers.

The next ice age is coming - but not so soon

I believe in the idea that we get another ice age but I don't believe that it's coming soon. Climate is very complex and we just know some details about the different factors that influence climate. It doesn't matter if we course global warming or if it is just a natural development. Global warming courses the meltdown of the glaciers and that leads to more water our oceans. Too much sweet water will stop the Gulf Stream.

Solar Cycle

I have just read in New Scientist that the Solar Cycle only tends to average out at 11 years. I can never find the article when I want, but it mentioed that a few scientists had used pictoral data from around 1784, it may have been astronomer Johann Staudecher's work. From the angle of the recorded Sunspots the scientists concluded much shorter cycles back then. This has yet to be confirmed, but would not be a surprise as an 11 year cycles for a few billion years doesn't kind of sit right with me!

Keith Driscoll
http://www.searchnfindarticles.com/Category/Science/248

MYSTERY ANARTICA TEMPRETURES

WHY IS THE CENTER OF ANARTICA ALLMOST COLD AS SPACE?
THERE HAS BEEN THEORYS ABOUT THIS,BUT THE SUN BOMBARDS EARTH WITH RADIATION, USUALLY STRONG,BUT A LULL OF 2YRS IS A CLEAR SIGN OF COOLING!
THE MAGNETIC FIELD OF EARTH HAS WEAKEND VASTLY OF LATE,IS THIS A COINCIDENCE ?
TOGETHER THERE SEEM TO BE A RELATIONSHIP AND THE CONTROLING FACTOR OF THE WEATHER HERE ON OUR PLANET!
NO WEATHER HAS MELTED THE 16,MILLION CUBIC MILES OF ICE IN ANARTICA IN MILLIONS OF YRS.
THE ICE IS VAST AND WITH ANCHIENT ORIGENS OF UNKNOWN TRUE AGE,THEY HAVE DRILLED,DUG,TESTED,SONAR PROBED,AND DO HAVE A 9 FOOT SALAMANDER WITH 1"TEETH TO SHOW OFF FOR THAT!
FORCASTERS DATA IS NOT EVEN CLOSE FOR A FUTURE PREDICTION MODEL!
HOWEVER ENOUGH MONEY IS PUT IN HAND FOR CPU BASED MODEL TO BACK THE GLOBAL WARMING THEORY THAT CERTAINLY PROVES TOO ME A AGENDA OF UNTRUTH NEEDS BACKING UP SOMEHOW,ANYWAY THEY CAN!
ALL PROBLEMS CAN BE FIXED WITH A TAX AND THATS THE PROBLEM?
HOW DO YOU SELL THIS TAX TOO PLANET EARTH INHABITANTS?
SAY IT ENOUGH AND PEOPLE WILL BELIVE IT,THATS STEP ONE,BACK IT UP WITH A BUNCH OF PLAUSABLE FACTS,BIBICAL DOOM SCENARIOS ALLWAYS WORKED IN CHURCH,THE END JUSTIFIES NOTHING!
TRUTH LIES IN THE SUN MAGNETOSPHERE RELATIONSHIP AND ANARTICA IS THE ROSETTA STONE TOO FIGURE THIS OUT!IMOP
THEN OCEAN CURRENTS AND JET STREAM EVENTS COULD BE MORE RESONABLY UNDERSTOOD!!

VOTE THE TAX FIXERS OUT,AND PUT WISDOM AHEAD OF POPULARITY AND WE HAVE SOME HOPE!IMOP
DO TAXES FIX THE WEATHER,NO, THERE NOT BUILDING A CO2 OXIGEN CONVERTER REACTOR ARE THEY,IM A TROUBLE MAKER IN SOMEONES EYES,CAUSE IM NOT BELIVING THE UNTRUTH,AND IM NOT STUPID ENOUGH TO BE TAXED FOR NOTHING !!!
HORRIBLE SCIENCE HAS REARED ITS UGLY HEAD TOO FAR,BECAUSE THOSE WITH TRUTH HAVE THE UNBREAKABLE ARMOR !
HOPE WE LOOK BACK AND REMEMBER,NUCLEAR WINTER,GLOBAL WARMING AND THE LIKE WAS SO FUNNY!!
I DONT THINK THE CANALS OF MARS ARGUMENT IS OVER YET IS IT!
THE QUANTUM PROTON INSTANTAINOUS DATA TRANSFER EXPERIMET LEFT THE SPEED OF LIGHT IN THE DUST,SO IM LOOKING FOR SOME MORE UNSOLVED MYSTERIOUS SUBJECTS THATS COMPELLS ME TOO INVESTIGATE?

Little Ice Age

Its just a speculation of mine - I haven't been able to find any hard data - but what if the sun coupled energy into the earth through modulations of its electrical surface currents and via the sun/earth magnetic field coupling? Landscheit suggested that global temperatures could be buffered through solar minima by ocean heat stored in the top few hundred meters of water.

Anyway recent research has shown the the Spitzer resistivity on the sun associated with flares and sunspot activity is six orders of magnitude higher than normal Spitzer resistivity (which was regarded as a constant). This happens to coincide very closely with the resistivity of sea water. The skin depth of sea water for currents induced via the ionospheric ring current is also just what is required about 300 metres so most of the energy would be dumped in the upper layers. If we regard the coupling of solar and earth magnetic fields as a transformer (series) then maximum power is transferred when source and sink resistances are equal. While formally it would be necessary to solve Maxwell's equations including the complex resistivity of this coupled system the path lenghts of the resitive elements may be matched (OK I did say speculation and I'm too ill to tackle Maxwell).

Anyway the correlations are there if not the nice hard numbers.

Such a model (if proven and quantified) would explain why low solar activity results in global cooling. We might speculate further that power coupling is proportional to the product of geo x helio magnetic field strength - it will be close. Then Maunder type cooling would result from a reduction in the strength of the Sun's magnetic field and a full blown Ice Age would be triggered by a concommitant reduction in the Earth's magnetic field. The gradual cooling that has occured since the end of the ice age is then seen as due to the fall off in the strength of Earth's magnetic field. Conditions for sustaining the ICE Age are set by Milankovich cycles.

Right now we are seeing a significant fall off in both the strength of the Sun's and Earth,s magnetic fields and I think the Earth's field is down 10-12% since the last Maunder minimum (50% in the last 6000 years). The last Gleisberg minimum was insufficient to trigger an Ice Age. Will the ensuing one so do? The Earth's field seems to be falling off quite rapidly now so we could be entering an Ice Age over the next three decades. If not we may have to wait anothe three hundred years for the trigger event.

You have to speculate to accumulate.

JM

Interesting Speculative Statistics

What are your thoughts on this article?

Dr. Timo Niroma and Jupiter's effect on Sunspots

Dr. Niroma's hypotheses is certainly quite interesting and he has obviously spent a lot of time working on it. Since there is no widely accepted explanation for the timing of sunspot cycles his speculation remains a valid as anyone else's. Jovan sized planets can certainly raise a tide on the stars they orbit, depending on their mass and orbital distance. Jupiter's average distance from the Sun is 778,412,020 km (5.203 times Earth) and its mass is 1.8987 x 1027 kg (317.82 times Earth). I find it noteworthy that, as massive as it is, Jupiter's greater distance from the Sun means it only has around 12 times the gravitational tug on our star as Earth does. I'm not sure if I accept all Niroma has to say but he is predicting another ice age (glacial period) or at least another Little Ice Age episode due to a lack of solar activity. We will know if he is right in a couple of hundred years. Thanks for the link.

Solar Influence on the Canadian prairies and elsewhere

Garnett et al 2006 revealed for the Canadian prairies that May-July tends to be wetter (drier) with low (high)sunspot activity. The Canadian prairies May-July between 1950 and 2004 tended to be wettest when sunspot activity was less than 70 sunspots per month and driest when sunspot activity was more than than 100 sunspots per month. This is consistent with the work of Svensmark and Calder, who in 2007 demonstrated that low sunspot activity results in increased cloud cover on a global scale, especially below 3.2 km, because of increased cloud seeding by cosmic rays. The amount of incoming cosmic rays is modulated by the solar activity. Finally, Karner (2008) has shown that low sunspot activity is associated with less irradiance or a less bright such that surface temperatures in Europe and Asia were lower. Hence, as a general rule low sunspot activity appears to be associated with an an increase in cosmic rays which seed clouds at a low levels and surface temperatures are lower as a result of less solar irradiance. January through May of 2009 there has been an average of 1.5 sunspots per month the lowest since 1913.

E.R.Garnett

Some References
Garnett,E.R, Nirupama,N. Haque,C.E. and Murty, T.S. 2006. Correlates of Canadian Prairie summer rainfall: implications for crop yields.Climate Research:Vol.32:25-33

Karner,O. 2008 ARIMA representation for daily solar irradiance and surface air temperature (submiited to Elsevier).

Svensmark and Calder, 2007. Chilling Stars (A new theory of Climate Change) A book.

For more on Svensmark and Cosmic Rays

Thanks for the good information and references. For more on the cosmic ray-climate link see Attempt To Discredit Cosmic Ray-Climate Link Using Computer Model.

Past Temperatures - You are in luck, it is charted out

There is a website that shows past temperatures (taken from ice cores and deep sea benthic core drilling) that shows what past temperatures were all the way back to 500 million years ago. Go to http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Temperature_Gallery and you can see this all broken out with different time periods easily charted out. From this site you will see that we have had an ice age averaging about 93,000 years with a brief 12,000 to 15,000 year warm interglacial repeatedly for the past million years. Our current Holocene interglacial warmth has been trending down during its 12,000 year history.

Global Warming Art

That site is a good source for graphical representations of historical climate data. A note of caution however, as you travel farther back in time from the present the less accurate and reliable the data become. That applies to both temperature and atmospheric gas level data. This is because the temperatures from times past were not measured by thermometers, either because there were no instruments or, farther back, no people to make the observations. All of these historical measurements are based on proxy data, which we explain in detail in chapter 14, of The Resilient Earth. The levels of uncertainty in readings more than a few hundred years old is greater than the magnitude of temperature change that have global warming activists so hot and bothered. Like I always say, stay skeptical, particularly when dealing with data from ancient times.

Past Temperature Proxies

Thank you for the chapter link, but it looks like Chapter 13 is probably what you wanted to link to me about O-18 and other long-term climatic proxies instead of the computer modelling of Chapter 14. I am definitely buying your book.

Oops!

You are right, the correct chapter is 13, Experimental Data and Error, not chapter 14. How embarrassing, having written it you'd think I'd get the chapter references correct! Thanks, and thanks for buying the book.

A note about the PDF files—they contain the text of the book as published but they also have many more illustrations. We initially formatted the book as a full color, oversized coffee table book but soon realized that it would have to sell for ~$120 if published that way. The soft cover edition has all the text, fewer illustrations and is in black & white, allowing it to sell for under $20 (US). In many ways Al and I like the soft cover edition better than the glitzy one, and we hope everyone will like it as well.

Percent of earths heat from the Sun

Does anyone have hard facts on the Percent of Earths heat from the Sun.
I believe I heard 90% is this true? If so why is this not a factor in Al Gore and Maurice Strong's
global warming scam.

Bob

Weather 1850's

I've recently looked for historical weather records because I have a letter written by my ancestry's in Dec.1856, describing very poor corps and a early frost, a number of family members died. In looking around at different records I found a list of volcanoes which had erupted in (1855/56) and by the look of this article, that was also a period of low sun spots. Interesting article thanks.

Does anyone know where I could find some weather records for that period (1856's) in the area of Nova Scotia / Northeast Coast US?

Nobody knows what will happen next

Its far too early, in my view, to say if the Earth is going to significantly cool. The earth's climate is a "loosely coupled non-linear system" and even if all of the proxy indicators for cooling appear, the Earth could still "warm".

The real problem is that prognostication on basis of this or that proxy is as old as humanity itself. Everybody wants to know the future, but nobody knows what will happen - its just that some pretend to know.

The greatest unknown is the future behaviour of the Sun - nobody knows what will happen next with the Sun. I wrote about the quote you mentioned on my generalist blog The PhD Effect and Scientific Prediction where I reinterpret what was said thus:

“We were wrong” says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA’s lead representative on the panel. “We don’t know what’s going on“

That, I submit, would have been far more accurate and informative a statement than what was actually offered by the NOAA panel, which continues to give false assurances as to its predictive performance which are at odds with its recent history. But will those phrases actually be passed through any of their lips? I don’t think so, somehow.

The ability of scientists in the glare of publicity to gloss over their previous failures to predict anything, even by chance, appears to be infinite.

Nobody knows what will happen next

Hi. This is my first time on this site so I hope you will forgive my ignorance.

Though I agree with you that no one can know what will happen in the future, I believe we can, (within acceptable error margins, whatever that may be) predict some things. Only because just about everything in the known universe behaves in cycles, and cycles of relatively very long lengths.

So if we want to know the effects of the sun on the rest of the system in the next say 200 years, that is a very short time in the cycle, relatively speaking, so some predictions may be made fairly accurately.

What is your opinion?

Strange Days Strange Skies

Good warning. Always good to save up, store up on food. However, what about the blocking out of the sun by all of the chemtrails and man-made weather weaponization. I think that this travestry should be stopped first before worrying about mother-nature's intent.

Year Without a Summer

Although 1816 is agood example of what can happen when Mother Nature goes cold, you should mention that the "year without a summer" in 1816 has been atributed to the eruption of Mount Tambora, in Indonesia, in 1815.

nice analysis

While I wouldn't say there is definitive proof either way, I think we would be better off going towards a colder climate than a warmer one..at least we have technologies to keep us relatively warm and shelters. If we go closer, it would most likely need to be a more robust approach to keeping the species alive..but isn't that what evolution is about? Either way I have noticed the travel, honeymoons and cruises industry take a bit of a dip as the weather has been sporadic with hurricanes and periods of extreme cold, followed by heat, with no real season moderation change.

You are correct

The proximate cause of the dismal summer weather in 1816 was indeed the volcanic eruption of Mount Tambora the previous year. Airborne particulates from the eruption caused additional cooling on top of the generally cooler climate of the time. The references in the popular media don't really match up with the historical or scientific facts. The facts in my post are correct, however, when talking about the correlation between sunspots and climate. As usual, behind the media's messed up historical references there are semi-appropriate analogies.

Just wanna say thx for the

Just wanna say thx for the fine tips , your blog is really great.

Well done!

Nicely written article. Don't know if we're headed for a new LIA, but the world has clearly gotten cold. I've collected pointers to some of the cold stories here:

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/05/23/south-hemisphere-record-early-snow/

There has also been a crop failure of sorts in Argentina:

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/05/04/argentine-drought-crop-failure/

So my take on things is that it will be getting a lot colder and we are likely to have some "food challenges" in the next few years. The Brazil comment in particular was interesting. I'd heard about impact on coacoa, but not about corn...

Trees, plants and more plants!

Perhaps we should plant many more trees, flowers and foliage plants, especially in urban areas, and keep CO2 polluting industries near forests etc.

Photosynthesis by plants changes CO2 into living breathing and breathable oxygen.

Green should REALLY mean green as in more plants, more trees, more greenery!

About article

Wow. Very nice article! It helped me very much. Thanks for it.

The article is very

The article is very interesting but also scary. Will we survive such an ice age. That is the real question. How long and how much of the current population will survive? Hopefully much.
From Mihai

about blog site

Indeed, as a reader to this blog I am truly impressed by it`s content, have been coming across posts that are so very informative for me, keep impressing us! well worth the read.I found it very informative as I have been researching a lot lately on practical matters such as you talk about.

how to home school

The best way to conduct this is by joining a group museum tour where there will be an instructor to guide and give you bits of information that will help your child.